Tahoe City, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

283
FXUS65 KREV 120831
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
131 AM PDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Triple digit heat and areas of major HeatRisk peak today,
  followed by a slight cooling Wednesday and a more notable
  cooling trend late this week.

* A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday
  mainly south of Interstate 80.

* Breezy afternoons from Wednesday through the weekend may bring
  elevated fire weather concerns and some impacts for recreation
  and aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The ridge of high pressure currently parked over northern CA-
western NV will expand eastward across the Great Basin today.
Highs came in around 100 degrees on Monday for many western NV
and northeast CA valleys, and today will bring the best chance for
triple digit heat, especially for the west central NV basin where
highs could approach 105 degrees. For Reno, there`s about a
30-40% chance of matching the record high of 102 degrees for this
date. As a result, heat advisories remain in effect with more
areas within the Major HeatRisk category this afternoon and
evening. Even the Sierra communities will feel the heat again
today with highs edging into the lower 90s. Wednesday will began a
slow cooling trend but remain above average, with highs mainly
95-100 degrees in lower elevations and mid-upper 80s for Sierra
communities.

This eastward progression of the upper ridge will bring a modest
southerly flow into the Sierra and western NV this afternoon,
resulting in increased moisture and instability, with cooling
aloft eroding the cap that prevented storms from forming on
Monday. The increased surface heating will lead to isolated shower
and thunderstorm activity initially favoring the eastern Sierra in
Alpine and Mono Counties. High resolution guidance indicates
isolated cells forming northward across far western NV and
possibly the eastern Tahoe basin, then shifting east of Reno-
Carson City into Lyon, Storey and eastern Douglas counties by late
afternoon. Outflow interactions and sufficient heat could keep
shower/storm activity going into this evening for west central NV,
with most cells remaining south of I-80 and west of US-95. The
main impact is likely to be strong outflow gusts, with downdraft
CAPE values of 1200-1600 J/KG in western NV supporting 50+ mph
gusts, and isolated gusts of 60+ mph. Otherwise, brief heavy
rainfall, small hail and lightning will accompany the stronger
cells today.

By Wednesday, drier southwest flow over the Sierra will reduce the
threat of thunderstorms across the Reno-Carson-Tahoe areas, with
the main focus for storms shifting to Mono, Mineral, southern Lyon
and eastern Churchill counties. Storm impacts similar to today are
anticipated, although faster storm motions may reduce the heavy
rainfall threat.

Winds will increase Wednesday afternoon across much of western NV
and eastern CA, with potential for gusts of 30-35 mph bringing
elevated fire weather concerns. With minimum humidity dipping to
10-15% in these areas, some sites could see 1-2 hours of critical
fire weather conditions in the late afternoon.

From Thursday through early next week, the ridge will continue
retreating eastward, while an upper level trough sets up along the
west coast. This pattern should keep the region dry overall
(except a few showers/storms remain possible in southeast Mono-
Mineral counties Thursday afternoon), with temperatures cooling to
the upper 80s-lower 90s for most lower elevations and upper
70s-near 80 for Sierra communities by the weekend. Breezy
afternoons are expected each day, with gusts mainly 25-30 mph. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions and light breezes prevail for much of
today, except for a short period of gusts around 20 kt mainly
between 22-03Z for the main terminals. Triple digit heat may pose
density altitude issues for western NV terminals this afternoon.

Thunderstorm chances return this afternoon with greatest potential
at KMMH (15-25%) and lesser chances for KRNO-KCXP-KMEV (10-15%).
For Wednesday afternoon, similar storm chances continue for KMMH,
but drop off at the other main terminals. However, wind gusts
increase to 25-30 kt for most terminals after 21Z. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Heat Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ001-003>005.

CA...Heat Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ070-071.

&&

$$